Personal finance for people who want to be great with money — written by the friend who already is.
Mortgages, refinancing, vacation and second homes — the biggest transaction most families ever run, treated with the seriousness it deserves.
The framework
Real estate is the category where narrative most consistently beats arithmetic. Four numbers, honestly calculated, will keep you out of almost every predictable mistake.
Principal, interest, tax, insurance, HOA, maintenance. All of it.
The mortgage payment is not the housing cost. Add 30–40% for the rest and use that number for every decision.
Every refinance, every rate buydown, every renovation has a break-even date.
If you won't be there past the break-even, the math says don't. Feelings can still say yes — just know which is which.
Every dollar in home equity is a dollar not in an index fund.
Not wrong. Not right. Just a tradeoff. Name it out loud so the decision is honest.
Real estate is illiquid. Selling costs 8–10%. Plan the exit before you buy.
If the honest holding period is under five years, rent. Almost always.
On this desk
Jul 9
Issue #12
A one-page decision framework for the rate environment you're actually in — not the one Twitter is telling you about.
1 min read
Time-sensitive
Jun 22
Issue #13
Mortgage is the small number. Insurance, maintenance, and vacancy are the big ones. Here's how the math actually shakes out.
1 min read
Evergreen
Jun 22
Issue #26
One of these lowers your payment for a $250 fee. The other resets your whole loan. Guess which one your bank prefers to sell you.
1 min read
Evergreen
The Desk Reads
Sources we track — not endorsements. The Smart Money reads widely and writes its own take. When a dispatch draws on one specifically, it's cited at the bottom.
Established sources
Bill McBride — right for fifteen years.
Forums for real investor scenarios.
Industry news and Logan Mohtashami's rate analysis.
Weekly market data.
Price and inventory data.
The canonical weekly mortgage-rate print.
Daily rate moves; sharper than weekly surveys.
Existing-home sales and buyer/seller profiles.
Small-scale rental math, honestly presented.
Rising voices
Regional housing-data granularity nobody else has.
Logan Mohtashami at HousingWire
The most-cited rate-and-inventory analyst of the cycle.
Primary & data sources
Official price data.
Mortgage-rate and housing series for charts.
Closing-cost and loan-comparison references.
Follow just this desk
Just the Real Estate Desk — the biggest transactions, honestly modeled.
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The kind of financial advice you'd get from a friend who's already figured it out. No hot takes, no leaderboards, no affiliate hustle.